Monte Carlo Simulator
Estimate project delivery dates using Monte Carlo statistical simulation. Essential tool for project managers and agile teams.
Simulation Configuration
Total Estimated: 39 days
About the Monte Carlo Method
What is Monte Carlo?
The Monte Carlo method is a statistical simulation technique that uses random sampling to obtain numerical results:
- • Generates multiple simulations with random values
- • Uses triangular distribution for time estimates
- • Calculates percentiles for risk analysis
How It Works
The Monte Carlo simulation process for project estimates:
- 1. Define optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates for each task
- 2. Run thousands of simulations with random values
- 3. Calculate statistics and percentiles of results
- 4. Provide delivery dates with different confidence levels
Benefits
Advantages of using Monte Carlo method in project estimates:
- • Considers uncertainty and natural variability
- • Provides multiple delivery scenarios
- • Helps with risk management and planning
- • Based on solid and proven statistics
Use Cases
Ideal situations for using Monte Carlo simulation:
- • Software project estimates
- • Agile sprint planning
- • Complex project management
- • Schedule risk analysis
Tips for Better Estimates
- • Use historical data when available
- • Include all critical project tasks
- • Consider dependencies and limited resources
- • Review and adjust estimates regularly